Figured I'd toss it here too, just in case someone missed the like 50 times I posted it on Discord
https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/445049357125812225/805980693321482280/unknown.png
Effectively, there's only a 18% difference between losing durability and not losing durability, in best case scenarios (1 durability less than max). I made the table hide everything with a greater than 100% chance to reduce durability; as you can see, the greater the difference, the less chance you have of not incurring durability loss.